18:02  VVostok: 17:48 Barbossa. ПОВТОР:
Она: ответь мне, только честно, да или нет, хорошо?
Он: спрашивай
Она: почему мужчины смеются над блондинками?
Он: да. ©

18:02  lardan: Фрося! и Дуся!

18:03  Inferno: такс..DAX очухался...
амеры тож, но пока на 40%, от падения...
поглядим

18:03  даос: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZEjaY4LkZ0&feature=related

18:04  SergaNet: CME поднимает маржинальные требования на Treasuries...

18:05  lardan: я ваще не паниманимаю .. че делають ники из владика на форуме.. у вас там такой форекс и форумы .. там надо быть пусть и не впервых рядах.. но быть надо .. там стройка не здесь.

18:05  Сливальщик депозитов: lardan По 4Н надо строго вниз !!!
Я за 32 минуты пипсанул 10 раз . ( шорты)
Сижу теперь думаю ......

18:07  Сливальщик депозитов: Но амеры обожают делать реверс .
Перекрасят 4Н свечу и оставят хвост внизу .
И сиди потом со своими шотами (

18:08  AlexGrig: Markets were quiet in the European session but the US dollar traded weak versus the Swiss franc and yen as expected. Earlier, Moody's cut Greece's sovereign rating by three notches to Ca, taking it one notch above the lowest possible rating. Dollar weakness comes after the latest round of negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling broke up acrimoniously and, crucially, without agreement over the weekend. EURUSD traded 1.4329-1.4417 and USDJPY 78.06-78.56. Gold hit a new record high at $1624.07/oz.

Although we recognise that investor concern is slowly rising, we feel the market is still willing to give the US the benefit of the doubt for now. Nevertheless, as Aug. 2 approaches, FX markets are likely to become increasingly volatile if no compromise is in sight. and the price action of USDJPY and USDCHF suggests that investors are preparing for the worst.

Risk pairs such as AUDUSD and NZDUSD may come under significant downward pressure - especially if equity markets weaken in tandem. US Treasury Secretary Geithner met with Fed Chairman Bernanke and New York Fed President Dudley on Friday to discuss the economic implications of a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner

Key Events
25 July 2011 Source: UBS Global Economics
Country GMT Release/Event Frequency UBS Prev/Revised Consensus Actual
United States 12:30 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Jun) index n/a -0.37 n/a
United States 14:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Jul) index n/a -17.5 -7.2
China Leading Index (Jun) index n/a 101.98 n/a
Source for all charts and tables unless otherwise noted: UBS Global Economics

Research Spotlight

Upgrading European Equities Global Equity Strategy
Last week's EU summit has materially lessened the tail risks from the debt crisis, allowing us to focus anew on the compelling valuation case for Europe. We advocate an overweight allocation in Europe for the first time since September 2009, and cut the US to underweight. Given unresolved soft patch and US debt-ceiling concerns, we believe it's premature to fully engage in risk assets, and thus keep a neutral allocation to global equities, with a balance between cyclical and defensive sectors. For further details, please see "Upgrading European Equities" on www.ubs.com/fxweb.

Currency Views
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.40 3m 1.40

Moody's cut Greece's sovereign rating by three notches to Ca on Monday, taking it to one notch above the lowest possible rating. This is not yet a selective default, although the agency noted that under the terms announced on Thursday, "the probability of a distressed exchange, and hence a default, on Greek government bonds is virtually 100%."

ECB's Costa says an economic government needs to be created for the Eurozone. The ECB have offered several hints over recent weeks that they favour a fiscal union, with Trichet noting on several occasions that it is the best scenario for the Eurozone.

Bundesbank President Weidmann gave a balanced assessment of the decisions taken at Thursday's EU summit, noting that "acute tensions in financial markets" might now be reduced. However, he also observed that "substantial additional risks were shifted to assisting countries and their taxpayers", which "weakens the foundation for a currency union based on fiscal self-responsibility".

On Friday there was further substantial tightening of Greek, Portuguese, and Irish sovereign bond spreads. However, Spanish and Italian 10y bond yields actually ended the day slightly wider, suggesting concern over contagion risk remains elevated. European politicians do not appear to be in any hurry to enact the proposals made on Thursday. Germany's Chancellor Merkel suggested she would not attempt to win support from the German parliament for Thursday's summit decisions until after the summer recess.

Fitch announced that Greece's sovereign rating would be cut to 'restricted default', but implied that this would not happen until private sector participation levels were known. Furthermore, Fitch's expectation is that this rating would only apply for "a few days", and would then be raised to "single B" or "CCC" as soon as new bonds are issued to replace the old. We note that the 'restricted default' term used by Fitch is equivalent to the 'selective default' rating used by Moody's and S&P.

Bank of Portugal Governor Costa ruled out the possibility of Portugal having its rating cut to selective default, dismissing the idea as "out of the question".

Fitch also announced that proposals to extend the powers of the EFSF, announced at Thursday's EU summit, would not imperil the EFSF's triple-A rating given that it is backed by guarantees.

ECB President Trichet again laid out his vision for institutional and governance reform within the Eurozone. He said in the future "it should be possible to impose measures on a country that does not implement the agreed adjustments". Looking even further ahead, he said that "a new type of confederation" could be created involving a "European finance ministry with its own responsibilities". Trichet added that the euro is not in the midst of a "currency crisis" because it is stable and keeps its value extremely well.

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85 3m 90

Finance Minister Noda said that the government "will take resolute actions when necessary" to help counter the yen's strength. He added that he needs to watch FX moves closely, as was the case during the joint G7 intervention in March. This is arguably the strongest warning issued since then, and illustrates that intervention risk is now extremely high.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.60 3m 1.56

BBA home loans in June were just ahead of expectations at 31,747, compared with forecasts for 31,000 and an upwardly revised 30,803 in May. However, mortgage lending numbers were down 6% y/y.

AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 1.05 3m 1.00

PPI for Q2 came in exactly in line with consensus at +0.8% q/q, and +3.4% y/y. As signalled in te recent RBA minutes, Wednesday's CPI print will be a key driver of monetary policy. Our Australian economists maintain their above-consensus +0.9% q/q forecast, and stick to their view that the next hike is due in October.

RBA Assistant Governor Edey said that domestic Australian banks have limited exposure to the sovereign debt of countries regarded as most at risk.

CAD Targets: USDCAD 1m 1.00 3m 1.00

June inflation was much weaker than expected, with the headline rate coming in at only +3.1% y/y (cons. 3.6%). The core figure also dropped to +1.3% y/y (prev. 1.9%), seriously dampening market expectations for an early hike from the Bank of Canada.

FX Technicals

USDCHF breaks 0.8033
EURUSD NEUTRAL While support lies at 1.4134, watch for a move above 1.4578 to trigger a bull trend.
USDJPY BEARISH Decline through 77.41 would open 76.25, a key low. Resistance is at 79.32.
GBPUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.6366 would expose 1.6442. Near-term support lies at 1.6121.
USDCHF BEARISH Sharp sell off through 0.8033 has opened the way towards 0.8000 and 0.7790. Resistance is at 0.8278.
AUDUSD BULLISH A move above 1.0889 would open the way towards 1.0953. Support lies at 1.0694.
USDCAD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9423 ahead of 0.9385. Resistance is at 0.9610.
EURCHF BEARISH The push through 1.1572 has opened 1.1496 ahead of 1.1374. Resistance is at 1.1781, intra day high.
EURGBP BEARISH Support is at 0.8757, a break of which would open 0.8705, a key low. Resistance holds at 0.8895.
EURJPY BEARISH While resistance at 113.66 holds, watch for a decline through 111.46 to expose 110.66.

18:09  Сливальщик депозитов: Через одну назад похожая 4Н свеча была , а потом зеленую дали.

18:09  колючий: lardan (17:52), А тут никто никому ничего не предъявлял. По-крайней мере я не видел. Одни только слова. И мои и твои и других. Ты говоришь что ты игрок и сильный к тому же, это тоже только слова. Верить или нет это дело каждого. Допустим я верю, чисто за глаза. А вообще-то можно только судить по сделкам озвученным он-лайн со стопами и примерными целями. Я часто озвучиваюсь, поэтому пусть другие судят и следуют или не следуют. От тебя я конкретных поз он-лайн не слышал. Но я верю тебе, только потому что ты долго находишься в рынке.

18:09  VVostok: 18:05 lardan
Не говорите что мне делать, и я не скажу куда Вам идти.

18:11  lieutenant: Суни - покупаю.

18:11  lardan: Григ лучше** ап бабах.. )) я знаю десяток игрокоф которы е прочитали ищщо утром.. с этого форума.. а вам тока на почту пришло и вы азаботились.. )) Григ - здесь есть люди которые играють и читають быстрее чем вы.. назвать имена?..))

18:12  inito: это я понимаю униц)) закрылся нормальненько) жду счастья)

18:14  Сливальщик депозитов: Чего то мне не хочется больше шортить .
И лонгить тоже .
Посижу в кэше .
Временно ОФФ

18:18  AlexGrig: пришло давно, пропустил, на всякий случай решил ознакомить.
В этом есть какой-то криминал?
Или хочется быть лучшим из лучших, методом поиска ошибок у других?
я тебя разочарую, таким методом сильным не станешь, будешь только слабее день ото дня.

Если ты далеко - покажи что ты близко
Если ты близко - покажи что далеко
Если ты силён - покажи что ты слаб
Если слаб - покажи что силён
Если ты мёртвый - покажи, что живой

18:18  lardan: колючий (18:09), я всегда говорил что каждый читаеть то что ему нравиться.. .. пачимута от Фроси до Алрузы или Кости - все знають где куда и сколько.. а то что вы в пыли фонтанируете.. это ерунда.. вы не из ёживайтесь а присоединяйтесь.. здесь есть люди про торговлю.. имногда про жизнь.. .. ))

18:19  AlexGrig: а быстро я не люблю фигачить сделки, скальпинг в 90% случаев путь к фиаско.

18:20  lardan: VVostok (18:09), - как хотите .. тогда смотрите по телеку.

18:21  AlexGrig: вообще, месье лардан, вы прекрасно знаете, что давно не входите в список людей коих я уважаю и с кем мне приятно общаться.
Насколько я знаю ваше отношение ко мне такое же.
Давайте избавим друг друга от диалогов, вы не против?
Ну и от монологов безответных тоже.

18:22  даос: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yB1J7JBszys&feature=related

18:22  news_robot: Господа, в разделе Валютный рынок появился новый комментарий

18:23  lardan: думаю у Фроси в осси все хаккей.

21:21  bazel911: А куда трусливый ГУРУ подевался(ЧИФ-Гагик Манукян).Ко мне вылетел.Доложусь народу!